Results from the third Alan Katz Politics Blog Unscientific Presidential Survey are in. As has been the case in the real world, we had a record breaking turnout for this poll. Also for the first time, the number of Democrats and Republicans participating in the poll were the same, each representing 40 percent of the total.
Democrats: Super Tuesday was pretty much a tie in the real world. They both won a number of states, their total popular vote was extremely close, and their delegate totals were neck-and-neck. In our survey, however, Senator Barack Obama was the clear winner over Senator Hillary Clinton. Based on the demographics of their core supporters, this would imply that more readers of this blog hang out at Starbucks rather than WalMart and are less than 60 years old. There was a small group of Democrats responding to the survey that were still pining for former Senator John Edwards and hadn’t yet decided who their new candidate would be. Presumably they decided by Tuesday night.
More than 60 percent of the Democrats could not see themselves voting for a Republican in the fall. Of those who could, Senator John McCain and former Governor Mitt Romney split their vote, with former Governor Mike Huckabee had only one Democrat willing to vote for him in the general election.
Republicans: Senator McCain may have been the big winner on Super Tuesday, but it was a lot closer among the respondents to this survey. Senator McCain edged out Governor Romney and the comeback kid, Governor Huckabee finished a distant third. When second choices were counted, Governor Romney closed the gap while Governor Huckabee remained an also ran.
The vast majority of Republicans are unwilling to consider voting for a Democrat in November, but among the few who would, Senators Obama and Clinton split their votes.
Independents: Both Senators Obama and McCain have received significant support from independents. In fact, without their support, Senator McCain would be unlikely to be the GOP frontrunner. In our unscientific survey, Senator Obama was the clear winner among unaffiliated voters.
Heads-up: Participants in the survey were able to vote in six hypothetical general election match-ups. The results were a clean sweep by Senator Obama who outpolled each of the GOP candidates by more than 15 percentage points. Senator Clinton bested Governor Romney and Huckabee, but by a much smaller margin. And she lost to Senator McCain by over five percent.
What does all this mean? Well, it was an unscientific survey, so not much. Of course, believers in Creative Design should have no problem giving credence to this poll, in which case it clearly shows Senator Obama would be the strongest Democrat and Senator McCain the strong Republican in the general election. But that’s obvious from real world elections, too.